Study: Fares lowest 8 weeks before flight
The optimum time to purchase airfares is eight weeks before departure, according to a new study from the University of Madrid.
Its research, led by economist Makoto Watanabe, reportedly takes into account myriad factors that affect ticket price fluctuations.
Booking too far in advance can be a gamble, for example, as it leaves scope for unforeseen circumstances arising.
But on the other hand fares tend to rise steeply as the departure date approaches, meaning that fares purchased close to the date of travel are often the most expensive.
Writing in an earlier research piece with Dr Marc Möller, Dr Watanabe compared and contrasted trends in airfare prices with those in West End theatre tickets.
The duo’s paper, Advance Purchase Discounts versus Clearance Sales, noted: “The purchase of airline and theatre tickets are both examples where individual demand uncertainty and rationing risks interfere.”
Emphasising key differences between the two, the economists added: “However, there exists empirical evidence which shows that airline ticket prices typically increase over time, while theatre tickets are often sold at a discount on the day of the performance.”
These differences can be attributed to the relative scarcity of last-minute airplane seats to key destinations such as London, as compared with the abundance of tickets for long-running West End musicals.
Curiously, Dr Watanabe’s new research also suggests that cheaper airfares are likely to be purchased in the afternoon rather than in the morning.
He speculated that this is due to airlines relying on leisure travellers booking at home after work, whereas business travellers are more likely to book at work in the morning.
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